When The LEGO Movie debuted to a staggering $69 million in North America during the weekend of February 7-9, I had to check outside my window to remind myself of what month we were in. I’m not used to reporting numbers that high when there’s still snow on the ground. It felt good. Luckily, the market didn’t slow down after that surprising debut. In fact, the exact opposite happened. The weeks that followed saw healthy debuts from Non-Stop, Son of God, 300: Rise of an Empire, Mr. Peabody & Sherman, Divergent and Noah. Then came Captain America: The Winter Soldier on April 4. As of press time, The Winter Soldier has already passed $300 million worldwide with plenty of room to grow. Disney’s decision to release the sequel in April will remain one of the smartest business moves that any distributor will make this year. The success of The Winter Soldier drives home the point that quality content will result in box office receipts no matter what the calendarreads.

　　當《樂高大電影》于2月7-9日首映期間在北美創下驚人的6900萬美元時，我不得不探望窗外，提醒自己現在究竟是幾月份。我可沒習慣積雪遍地的時候去報道這么高的票房數字。這感覺真好。幸運的是，在令人驚艷的首映后市場并未減緩。事實上，情勢正好相反。接下來幾周上映情況良好，從《永不停歇》、到《上帝之子》、《300勇士：帝國崛起》、《天才眼鏡狗》、《分歧者》和《諾亞方舟：創世之旅》。然后《美國隊長：冬日戰士》在4月4日登場。截至發稿日，《美國隊長》在全球沖破3億美元大關，而且升勢不減。迪士尼決定在4月上映續集是今年所有發行商將會作出的最英明的商業決策之一?！睹绹犻L：冬日戰士》的成功有力地表明，高質量內容帶來高票房收入，而無論當下是不是旺季。

　　A quick glance at the 2015 release schedule indicates that the strong scheduling of early 2014 is no fluke. February 2015 boasts such potential hits as Fifty Shades of Grey and SpongeBob Squarepants 2, while March 2015 brings Cinderella, Insurgent—the sequel to Divergent—and The Penguins of Madagascar, among others. As for April 2015, the release of Fast & Furious 7 should be massive.

　　快速瀏覽2015年的放映計劃表明，2014年的強勁排期計劃并非偶然。2015年2月手握大戲，諸如潛力火爆的《五十度灰》與《海綿寶寶大電影2》，接著2015年3月將推出《灰姑娘》、《反叛者》——分歧者的續集——《馬達加斯加的企鵝》等等。至于2015年4月，《速度與激情7》的上映應該是重量級的。

　　If February, March and April continue to evolve into powerhouse months, how will that affect the Summer season each year? That’s simple: it takes some of the pressure off. A strong release schedule early in the year means that the Summer months don’t need to boost the North American total box office as much as they did before.

　　如果2月、3月與4月持續發展成旺季，每年會如何影響夏季呢？這很簡單：那會讓夏季減輕些許壓力。年初強勁的排期計劃表意味著夏季月份不需再像之前那樣硬生生地強力拉升北美總票房。

　　We’re now heading into a Summer season that’s full of definite hits and a couple of films that look they could surprise. More importantly, it’s full of films that will play well globally. Unfortunately, it’s taking a long time for the “North America is the world” mentality to die when it comes to the way that many people analyze the performance of this industry. The media still loves to pounce on domestic failures while largely ignoring—or at least downplaying—the successes. Case in point: last summer there was no shortage of articles about how big of a bomb The Long Ranger was, but writers seemed to forget that the same studio that put out The Lone Ranger also released two films—Iron Man 3 and Monsters University—that combined for nearly $2 billion in global receipts. How convenient.

　　我們正在走近夏季。這個夏季充滿必然轟動票房的大片，還有兩、三部電影似乎能夠出人意料。更重要的是，市場充盈著將在全球熱映的電影。不幸的是，很多人分析這個行業表現的方式，“北美就是全世界”的心態長久以來都冥頑不化。媒體仍熱衷于抨擊國內的失敗，而在很大程度上忽略了——或至少淡化了——成功。案例：去年夏季連篇累牘地抨擊《獨行俠》一敗涂地。但這些作者似乎忘記了發行《獨行俠》的同一家工作室，同樣也發行了兩部電影——《鋼鐵俠3》與《怪物大學》——全球票房總收入合計接近20億美元。真能省事啊。

　　We are going to see some big things happen this summer in crucial overseas territories such as China, Brazil, South Korea and the U.K., just to name a few. The biggest source of overseas potential has to be Transformers: Age of Extinction’s release in China. 2011’s Transformers: Dark of the Moon raked in a whopping $172.3 million in China, so anything less than $200 million for Age of Extinction in the world’s 2nd largest theatrical market will be viewed as a disappointment.

　　讓我們看看一些關鍵的海外地區在這個夏季將會發生的一些大事，比如在中國、巴西、韓國與英國，僅枚舉幾例。最大的海外潛力票房來源必須是《變形金剛4：絕跡重生》在中國的放映。2011年的《變形金剛3》在中國賺得龐大的1.723億美元，所以《變形金剛4：絕跡重生》在第二大影院市場如若低于2億美元成績，將會令人失望。

　　Summer 2014 is full of films that could gross anywhere between $500 million-$1 billion globally based on expectations that come from being part of an established property. Let’s go down the list: The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Godzilla, X-Men: Days of Future Past, Maleficent, How To Train Your Dragon 2,Transformers: Age of Extinction and Dawn of the Planet of the Apes. In addition,there are a bunch of other films that should hit at least $250 million-$300 million worldwide.

　　2014年夏季充盈許多能賺取1億到10億美元全球票房的電影，這是基于這些影片作為功成名就的系列影片的一部分的預期。讓我們盤點一下這個名單：《超凡蜘蛛俠2》、《哥斯拉》、《X戰警：逆轉未來》、《沉睡魔咒》、《馴龍高手2》、《變形金剛4：絕跡重生》與《猩球黎明》。此外，還有一些電影應該至少能拿下2.5億到3億美元全球票房。

　　Any Summer season comes with its share of potential surprise hits, and this summer is no different. It’s important to not overlook the importance of surprises, because any year lives or dies based on how many films play better than expected. There are four films opening between May and August that I feel could fall into this category: Million Dollar Arm, The Fault in Our Stars, Guardians of the Galaxy and Lucy. Also not to be ignored are Tammy, Earth to Echo and Into the Storm.

　　任何夏季都伴隨潛力股驚艷來襲，這個夏季也不例外。重要的是別忽略了驚喜的重要性，因為每年的生死榮辱都在于有多少電影比預期表現更好。我覺得有四部從5月到8月上映的電影可以歸入這類范疇：《百萬金臂》、《星運里的錯》、《銀河護衛隊》和《伯爵夫人》。同樣也別忘了《譚米》、《地球回音》與《不懼風暴》。

　　Summer 2014 does face the daunting task off matching Summer 2013’s massive output of $4.7 billion from May 1-August 31. It won’t be easy. It’s going to take a combination of the strongest films matching—or preferably exceeding—expectations and a handful of surprises really shining in order to keep up. Yet with a diversification of the release schedule becoming more common,this may end up being one of the last years that we put so much pressure on the Summer season. In a world where all 52 weekends of the year are in play, the Summer season will ideally end up feeling like business as usual instead of a much-needed boost.

　　要想媲美2013年夏季5月1日至8月31日47億美元的巨額票房，2014年夏季確實面臨艱巨的任務。這并非易事。為了不落于后，市場勢必需要最強勢的電影持平（或最好能超越）期望，外加幾部真正大放光彩的驚喜影片。隨著排期時間表的多元分化更加司空見慣，這可能是我們最后一個寄予厚望的夏季。在全年52個星期都發揮作用的世界里，夏季最理想地是能夠照常運轉，再也不需要強力刺激。