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《雷神2》與《美國隊(duì)長2》會(huì)受益于《復(fù)仇者聯(lián)盟》效應(yīng)嗎? WILL THOR 2 AND CAPTAIN AMERICA 2 BENEFIT FROM

2013-07-18 肖恩·羅賓斯 電影中國


  整個(gè)電影界正目睹著《鋼鐵俠3》難以置信的全球票房成功,我們因而確信上一年《復(fù)仇者聯(lián)盟》的非凡響應(yīng)大力度提升了國內(nèi)外對(duì)托尼·斯塔克領(lǐng)銜的又一部系列片的票房感召力。
  As the industry watches the incredible global success of Iron Man 3, we now know that last year's phenomenal reception of The Avengers had a big hand in increasing the domestic and overseas appeal of another Tony Stark-led sequel.

  例如,2010年《鋼鐵俠2》美國本土進(jìn)賬3.121億美元,海外市場3.1億美元。在與日俱增的《復(fù)仇者聯(lián)盟》興趣、不斷擴(kuò)大的市場和3D高價(jià)的三重聯(lián)合猛擊下,《鋼鐵俠3》迅速逼近全球10億美元的票房大關(guān)。事實(shí)上,該片在許多亞洲市場已經(jīng)超越了《復(fù)仇者聯(lián)盟》的票房收入。
  For instance, 2010's Iron Man 2 took in $312.1 million stateside and $310 million in foreign markets. With the triple-whammy combo of increased Avengers interest, expanding markets, and premium 3D prices, Iron Man 3 is rapidly approaching $1 billion global. In fact, the film has already exceeded The Avengers' box office receipts in many Asian markets.

  在國內(nèi),扣除通貨膨脹和3D票價(jià)因素,《鋼鐵俠3》在首映周末的票房銷售上已經(jīng)超越《鋼鐵俠2》, 這成功在第三部續(xù)集是相當(dāng)罕見的,畢竟其前集(《鋼鐵俠2》)不像第一部那樣受人喜愛。
  Domestically, Iron Man 3 exceeded the number of tickets sold by Iron Man 2 on opening weekend after accounting for inflation and 3D prices. That's a fairly rare feat among second sequels whose predecessors (Iron Man 2, in this case) aren't as well-liked as the original film.

  《鋼鐵俠3》很清楚地邁進(jìn)在全球11億美元票房(或許更多)的大道上,為漫威宇宙公司的下一部影片樹立了更高的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。
With a clear path toward at least $1.1 billion worldwide (and likely more), Iron Man 3 is setting a high standard for the next Marvel Cinematic Universe installments.

  最先接受檢驗(yàn)的是將會(huì)在11月上映的《雷神2:黑暗世界》。在國內(nèi),該續(xù)集大有希望達(dá)到2011年首部《雷神》的1.81億美元票房——但若將其與《鋼鐵俠3》等量齊觀,似乎還是一項(xiàng)艱巨的任務(wù)。為什么?一個(gè)詞:《星火燎原》。獅門影業(yè)志在必得的《饑餓游戲2:星火燎原》將在11月22日上映,僅在《雷神2》放映后的14日。
  None will be tested sooner than Thor: The Dark World, releasing this November. Domestically, that sequel has a good shot at the first Thor's $181 million in 2011--but being regarded as an event nearly as large as Iron Man 3 still seems a herculean task. Why? Two words: Catching Fire. Lionsgate's surefire hit opens just 14 days after Thor 2 on November 22.

  這就是說,上一年《饑餓游戲》第一部在海外市場的成績并不如在北美市場火熱。如若情形不變,會(huì)使《雷神2:黑暗世界》贏得海外優(yōu)勢——這一點(diǎn)現(xiàn)在很重要。2011年的《雷神》總共賺得2.65億美元的海外收入(在當(dāng)時(shí)這本身就是令人印象深刻的數(shù)字)。如果《復(fù)仇者聯(lián)盟》和《鋼鐵俠3》真能反映海外市場對(duì)漫畫流派的興趣正在提升(最近由克里斯托弗·諾蘭執(zhí)導(dǎo)的《蝙蝠俠:黑暗騎士》續(xù)集所表明的),那么《雷神2》相比前集將有可觀增長。
  That said, the first Hunger Games movie wasn't quite as big of a monster hit overseas as it was in North America last year. If the status quo remains there, that gives Thor: The Dark World a foreign advantage--a very important one these days. 2011's Thor grossed $265 million overseas (itself an impressive number at the time). If the success of The Avengers and Iron Man 3 really are indicative of expanding foreign interest in the comic book genre (something recently shown by Chris Nolan's Dark Knight sequels), The Dark World may stand to gain quite a bit on its predecessor.

  除了《雷神》系列,下一部續(xù)集是2014年的《美國隊(duì)長:冬日戰(zhàn)士》。該片選擇下年4月上映(目前所知)。作為3個(gè)單一“復(fù)仇者”中賣座最低的電影(“綠巨人浩克”在可預(yù)見的短期里將不會(huì)出單集,所以排除在外),想要大力超越前集的3.677億美元全球票房總額或許仍不太可能。這類主角明顯國內(nèi)偶像的特征偏重北美市場表現(xiàn),借力下年夏季檔期不失是一個(gè)好的對(duì)策。
  Beyond Thor, the next sequel will be 2014's Captain America: The Winter Soldier. That film has opted for an April release next year (for now, anyway). As the lowest grossing of the three major solo Avengers (we're excluding Hulk since his solo movies have ended for the foreseeable future), a large increase over the sequel's $367.7 million global tally isn't likely... yet. The nature of that character's obvious domestic appeal puts more importance on the North American performance, and getting a jump on the summer schedule next year isn't a bad strategy on how to tackle that.

  接下來是2014年8月的《銀河護(hù)衛(wèi)隊(duì)》。這將可能是漫威迄今最深?yuàn)W的一部改編劇,而他們的業(yè)績記錄也難以探究。全新角色陣容和全新漫畫背景,預(yù)測其票房潛力目前根本無從下手,完全是個(gè)未知數(shù)。
  Then, in August 2014, comes Guardians of the Galaxy. This will be Marvel's most potentially esoteric adaptation yet, but their track record is hard to dispute. With a complete cast of new characters and new cosmic settings, forecasting its box office potential is simply out of the question for now. It's a complete wild card.

  不過在核心續(xù)集中有兩個(gè)因素值得記牢。第一、《鋼鐵俠3》是其系列中第一部3D作品,盡管《雷神2:黑暗世界》與《美國隊(duì)長:冬日戰(zhàn)士》注定會(huì)得益于《復(fù)仇者聯(lián)盟》的成功,但它們的前集早已在2011年就推出3D版本。換言之,要期待海外票房(如《鋼鐵俠3》比《鋼鐵俠2》那樣最終贏得的)200-250%的增長對(duì)于這兩部來說似乎幾無可能。
  There are two factors to remember with the core sequels, though. #1: Iron Man 3 was the first in its series to be released in 3D. While The Dark World and The Winter Soldier still stand to gain from the success of The Avengers, their predecessors were already released in 3D in 2011. In other words, expecting a 200-250 percent increase in foreign grosses (as will ultimately be enjoyed by Iron Man 3 over Iron Man 2) seems highly unlikely for those two.

  第二個(gè)因素:收益遞減規(guī)律。作為第一部 《復(fù)仇者》后電影,不排除《鋼鐵俠3》將會(huì)比其他幾部單獨(dú) “復(fù)仇者”電影獲利更多。盡管如此,《雷神2》與《美國隊(duì)長2》的續(xù)集仍將是全球市場的主力影片。其一(甚或兩部)如《超凡蜘蛛俠》這類成功頂級(jí)大片橫掃全球7.58億美元票房,并非完全神話。但這兩部會(huì)有1億美元的未來嗎?似乎不大可能,但《鋼鐵俠3》教會(huì)我們,永遠(yuǎn)別說做不到。
  The second factor: the law of diminishing returns. As the first post-Avengers movie, it cannot be ruled out that Iron Man 3 stood far more to gain than any of the other solo films will. Nevertheless, both the Thor and Captain America sequels will still be major global players. The $758 million global take of an established A-list property like The Amazing Spider-Man might not even be out of the question for one (or both). Will $1 billion be in either of their futures? It seems unlikely, but Iron Man 3 has taught us to never say never.

  最后,如果遵循2012年15億美元票房收入現(xiàn)象,漫威的《復(fù)仇者聯(lián)盟2》占據(jù)天時(shí)地利,兩年后將會(huì)再次征服票房。我們有信心這一天指日可待。
  Ultimately, as it follows a $1.5 billion-grossing 2012 phenomenon, Marvel's The Avengers 2 is well-positioned to conquer the box office again two years from now. That much we can take to the bank.

雷神 美國隊(duì) 受益

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